Analysis and prediction of the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and prematurity

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Introduction. Despite the increase in the specific weight of bronchopulmonary dysplasia among children, its true incidence is unknown. The ratio of the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and associated prematurity remains unexplored.

The aim of the study was to analyze the ratio of the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and prematurity and to predict their dynamics.

Material and methods. According to official data, 469 cases of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and the frequency of prematurity in 2012–2017 were studied with the use of a continuous retrospective method. The Brown method’s calculation of the absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, and forecasting was carried out.

The results of the study. An increase in the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in children occurs simultaneously with an increase in the frequency of prematurity. However, the indices of the growth rate and growth rate of prematurity outstrip those of the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and the absolute increase in bronchopulmonary dysplasia is significantly higher than for the frequency of prematurity. Short-term prognosis indicates an increase in the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and the frequency of prematurity.

Conclusion. Indices of the dynamics and prognostic estimates of the incidence of children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia and prematurity should be taken into account when managing specialized medical care.

Sobre autores

Nikolay Agarkov

Southwest State University; Belgorod State national research University

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: vitalaxen@mail.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-4821-3692

MD, Ph,D., DSci., Professor, Department of biomedical engineering of the Southwest State University, Kursk, 305040, Russian Federation.

e-mail: vitalaxen@mail.ru

Rússia

Aleksandra Poshibailova

Belgorod Regional Clinical Hospital of Prelate Ioasafa

Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-2012-7987
Rússia

Vladimir Lutsenko

Kursk Regional Clinical Hospital

Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-4858-0898
Rússia

Kristina Makkonen

Belgorod State national research University

Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0002-4190-8651
Rússia

Aleksandr Nazarov

Orenburg State Medical University

Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7129-0808
Rússia

Aleksey Shevtsov

Southwest State University

Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID ID: 0000-0003-0267-6859
Rússia

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Declaração de direitos autorais © Agarkov N.M., Poshibailova A.V., Lutsenko V.D., Makkonen K.F., Nazarov A.M., Shevtsov A.N., 2021

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