CHANGES OF MORTALITY AND RATE OF AGING IN THE SECOND HALF OF 20TH CENTURY IN RUSSIA

Capa

Citar

Texto integral

Resumo

Introduction. The deepening of medical and demographic problems associated with the sharp aging of the population is an obstacle to the effective socio-economic development of countries, determining the increased interest in the problem of aging. The aim of the study is to study the features and causes of changes in age mortality in Russia of the twentieth century. Material and methods. Used a table of survival for the 1960-2000 years for Russia to calculate the components of the formula of Gompertz, the intensity of mortality and its increments, using the Excel program, and developed the computer program “Aging of populations»; the adequacy of the calculated (according to the Gompertz formula) and true mortality rate was estimated by the correlation coefficient (“r”). Results. The data obtained clearly show the presence of 4 stages of mortality change: reduction of child mortality; increased mortality of working age (20-65 years); the same mortality of retirement ages (65-85 years); increased mortality in the ages of long-livers (from 85-90 years). Discussion. It can be concluded that the improvement of medical and social care for children and pensioners reduces child mortality and produces the phenomenon of “delayed mortality” of pensioners: reducing the intensity of mortality (the rate of aging) in this age period. The latter leads to the phenomenon of inversion of total mortality for ages of long-livers (from reduced to increased). Use instead of overall intensity of mortality of its increment leads to the conclusion however, that the decrease in the rate of ageing for the ages of centenarians persists. For working person age mortality is increasing, which is obviously due to the increasing stress and environmental difficulties of modern cities. During the pension period, mortality rates are equalized for all studied historical periods. The reduction of the external component of mortality of the Gompertz formula makes the graph more linear over a longer age period (the contribution of the external component of Makeham, the constant, to the exponential component of biological aging, decreases). Conclusion. The detected trends in mortality indicate the direction of preventive and socio-medical impact on the health of the population.

Sobre autores

V. Dontsov

Federal Research Center «Computer Science and Control»

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: dontsovvi@mail.ru
Rússia

Bibliografia

  1. Ильичева Ю.В., Колотова С.А. Влияние демографических процессов на производительность общественного труда. Управление персоналом и интеллектуальными ресурсами в России. 2014; 3(3): 49-54.
  2. Смирнова Т.М., Крутько В.Н. Историческая динамика смертности и ее учет в целях стратегического планирования медицинской и социальной помощи пожилым. Клиническая геронтология. 2018; 24(9-10): 63-5.
  3. Brown N.J.L., Albers C.J., Ritchie S.J. Contesting the evidence for limited human lifespan. Nature. 2017; 546: E6-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature2278
  4. Dong X., Milholland B., Vijg J. Evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature. 2016; 538(7624): 257-9. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19793
  5. Lenart A., Vaupel J.W. Questionable evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature. 2017; 546(7660): E13-4. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22790
  6. Skiadas C.H. Remarks on “Limits to Human Lifespan”. In: Skiadas C.H., ed. Demography and Health Issues. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol. 46. Cham: Springer; 2018: 15-30. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5_2
  7. De Beer J., Bardoutsos A., Janssen F. Maximum human lifespan may increase to 125 years. Nature. 2017; 546(7670): E16-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22792
  8. Gavrilov L.A., Krut’ko V.N., Gavrilova N.S. The Future of Human Longevity. Gerontology. 2017; 63(6): 524-6. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1159/000477965
  9. Kinsella K.G. Future longevity-demographic concerns and consequences. J. Am. Geriatr. Soc. 2005; 53(9 Suppl.): 299-303. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x
  10. Zuo W., Jiang S., Guo Z., Feldman M.W., Tuljapurkar S. Advancing front of old-age human survival. PNAS. 2018; 115(44): 11209-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812337115
  11. Barbi E., Lagona F., Marsili M., Vaupel J.W., Wachter K.W. The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers. Science. 2018; 360(6396): 1459-61. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat3119
  12. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S., Krut’ko V.N. New Evidence that Protective Effects of Familial Longevity Expire at Older Ages. Theses of the IAGG 2017 World Congress (July 23-27, 2017. San Francisco, California. Innovation in Aging. 2017; 1(1): 896.
  13. Griffin R.M., Hayward A.D., Bolund E., Maklakov A.A., Lummaa V. Sex differences in adult mortality rate mediated by early life environmental conditions. Ecol. Lett. 2018; 21(2): 235-42. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12888
  14. Finch C.E. Evolution of the human lifespan and diseases of aging: roles of infection, inflammation, and nutrition. PNAS. 2010; 107(1): 1718-24. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0909606106
  15. Ribeiro A.I., Krainski E.T., Carvalho M.S., De Fátima de Pina M. The influence of socioeconomic deprivation, access to healthcare and physical environment on old-age survival in Portugal. Geospat. Health. 2017; 12(2): 581. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2017.581
  16. Canudas-Romo V., Mazzuco S., Zanotto L. Measures and Models of Mortality. Handbook of Statistics. 2018; 39: 405-42. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.host.2018.05.002
  17. The Human Mortality Database. Available at: http://www.mortality.org
  18. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. New-York: Harwood Academic Publisher; 1991.
  19. Хасанова Р. Смертность в России: о чем говорят данные 2017 г. Экономическое развитие России. 2018; 25(2): 64-8
  20. Cha J., Finkelstein M. On some mortality rate processes and mortality deceleration with age. J. Math. Biol. 2016; 72(1-2): 331-42. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-015-0885-0
  21. Yashin A.I., Ukraintseva S.V., De Benedictis G., Anisimov V.N., Butov A.A., Arbeev K., et al. Have the oldest old adults ever been frail in the past? A hypothesis that explains modern trends in survival. J. Gerontol. A Biol. Sci. Med. Sci. 2001; 56(10): B432-42.
  22. Gompertz B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on the mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A. 1825; 115: 513-85. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1825.0026
  23. Kirkwood T.B. Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 2015; 370(1666). Doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0379.
  24. Olshansky S.J., Carnes B.A. Ever since Gompertz. Demography. 1997; 34(1): 1-15.
  25. Крутько В.Н., Смирнова Т.М. Анализ тенденций смертности и продолжительности жизни населения России в конце XX века. М.: УРСC; 2002.
  26. Школьников В.М. Население России: смертность, продолжительность жизни. Социологический журнал. 1995; (1): 167-74.
  27. Wilmoth J.R. Demography of longevity: past, present, and future trends. Exp. Gerontol. 2000; 35(9-10): 1111-29.
  28. Kuznetsov L.V., Mamaev V.B., Ershova D.A. kinetic analysis of age-specific population mortality in the Russian Federation: total mortality. Advances in Gerontology. 2011; 1(2): 107-11. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079057011020081
  29. Kreiner C.T., Nielsen T.H., Serena B.L. Role of income mobility for the measurement of inequality in life expectancy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2018; 115(46): 11754-9. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1811455115
  30. Waldron H. Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status. Soc. Secur. Bull. 2007; 67(3): 1-28.
  31. Большаков А.М., Крутько В.Н., Кутепов Е.Н., Мамиконова О.А., Потемкина Н.С., Розенблит С.И. и др. Информационные нагрузки как новый актуальный раздел гигиены детей и подростков. Гигиена и санитария. 2016; 95(2): 172-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2016-95-2-172-177
  32. Малов А.М., Луковникова Л.В., Аликбаева Л.А., Якубова И.Ш., Щеголихин Д.К. Результаты биомониторинга ртутного загрязнения территории мегаполиса. Гигиена и санитария. 2018; 97(12): 1189-94. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2018-97-12-1189-1194
  33. Малышева А.Г., Шелепова О.В., Водянова М.А., Донерьян Л.Г., Ушакова О.В., Юдин С.М. Эколого-гигиенические проблемы применения противогололёдных реагентов в условиях крупного мегаполиса (на примере территории города Москвы). Гигиена и санитария. 2018; 97(11): 1032-7. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2018-97-11-1032-37
  34. Крийт В.Е., Сладкова Ю.Н., Смирнов В.В. Двухуровневые автомобильные мосты как особый источник шумового воздействия на жилую застройку на примере канонерского острова Санкт-Петербурга. Гигиена и санитария. 2018; 97(12): 1162-5. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2018-97-12-1162-1165
  35. Ященко С.Г., Рыбалко С.Ю., Шибанов С.Э., Григорьев О.А. Электромагнитная обстановка радиочастотного диапазона мобильной связи и заболеваемость взрослого населения болезнями системы кровообращения. Гигиена и санитария. 2018; 97(12): 1184-8. Doi: https://doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2018-97-12-1184-1188
  36. Dato S., Rose G., Crocco P. et al. The genetics of human longevity: an intricacy of genes, environment, culture and microbiome. Mech. Ageing Dev. 2017; 165(Pt. B): 147-155. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mad.2017.03.011
  37. Hayflick L. Entropy explains aging, genetic determinism explains longevity, and undefined terminology explains misunderstanding both. PLoS Genet. 2007; 3(12): e220. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.0030220
  38. Vagero D., Aronsson V., Modin B. Why is parental lifespan linked to children’s chances of reaching a high age? A transgenerational hypothesis. SSM Popul. Health. 2018; 4: 45-54. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2017.11.006
  39. Rossolini G., Piantanelli L. Mathematical modeling of the aging processes and the mechanisms of mortality: paramount role of heterogeneity. Exp. Gerontol. 2001; 36(8): 1277-88.
  40. Krut’ko V.N., Dontsov V.I., Khalyavkin A.V., Markova A.N. Natural aging as a sequential poly-systemic syndrome. Front. Biosci. (Landmark Ed). 2018. 23: 909-20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2741/4624

Arquivos suplementares

Arquivos suplementares
Ação
1. JATS XML
Baixar

Declaração de direitos autorais © Dontsov V.I., 2020

Creative Commons License
Este artigo é disponível sob a Licença Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.
СМИ зарегистрировано Федеральной службой по надзору в сфере связи, информационных технологий и массовых коммуникаций (Роскомнадзор).
Регистрационный номер и дата принятия решения о регистрации СМИ:  ПИ № ФС77-50668 от 13.07.2012 г.