Assessment of Subendemic Earthworms' Species Distribution in the Mountain Forests of North-Western Caucasus under Different Climate Change Scenarios

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Abstract

The ongoing climate changes affect soils and soil invertebrates mainly through changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. The purpose of this work is to evaluate ecological and geographical distribution models of various earthworm species, created using the method of bioclimatic modelling for various climatic scenarios. Habitats modelling for two subendemic species of earthworms, currently most widespread in the forest ecosystems of the North-Western Caucasus, was carried out: Dendrobaena schmidti (epi-endogeic and endogeic forms were studied separately) and D. nassonovi (anecic form). The modelling was carried out based on the field data on the species and forms detection, obtained during the expedition routes of 2014—2019, carried out from the lower tree line to the upper one in the North-Western Caucasus. 1028 geographical points were surveyed, of which the epi-endogeic form D. schmidti was found in 105 points, the endogeic form in 575, and the anecic species D. nassonovi in 185. Models were developed up to year 2070 using Maxent 3.4.4 software. Scenarios based on changes in greenhouse gas concentrations were used as future climate change forecasts: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. It has been shown that the studied species of earthworms belonging to three morpho-ecological groups are vulnerable to rising temperatures combined with a decrease in precipitation, as well as to uneven precipitation. It is reflected in a reduction in the area of potential habitats in the most suitable habitat conditions for these species of earthworms under different climatic scenarios, especially the most “severe” ones — RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5.

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About the authors

E. P. Geraskina

Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity of the RAS

Author for correspondence.
Email: angersgma@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Profsoyuznaya St. 84/32 bldg. 14, Moscow, 117997

N. E. Shevchenko

Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity of the RAS

Email: angersgma@gmail.com
Russian Federation, Profsoyuznaya St. 84/32 bldg. 14, Moscow, 117997

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Changes in the distribution area of the soil-litter form of D. sshmidti under 4 climatic scenarios: a - RCP 2.6, b - RCP 4.5, c - RCP 6.0, d - RCP 8.5.

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3. Fig. 2. Change in the distribution area of the proper-soil form of D. sshmidti under 4 climatic scenarios: a - RCP 2.6, b - RCP 4.5, c - RCP 6.0, d - RCP 8.5.

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4. Fig. 3. Changes in the distribution area of the mink species D. nassonovi under four climatic scenarios: a - RCP 2.6, b - RCP 4.5, c - RCP 6.0, d - RCP 8.5.

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