Bioclimatic modeling of altitudinal structure of vegetation cover in Altai-Sayan orobiome

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Abstract

Identification of the altitudinal-belt organization of vegetation cover in mountains based on the climatopes of major communities which form the belts makes it possible to construct a strong frame, the elements of which are formed by the most important ecological and geographical factors that support modern botanical diversity and its spatial structure. Climate, considered as a key factor of vegetation organization at the level of altitudinal spectra, belts and their communities, characterizes the potential conditions under which sustainable support of established level of biodiversity and structure of mountain ecosystems is possible in the long term within the framework of orobiomes as integral phenomena of ecosystem diversity. The content of orobiomes, along with a certain integrity in the altitudinal spectrum, shows differences in diversity, which are best marked by the types of altitudinal zonality with a specific composition of altitudinal spectra, the altitudinal limits of distribution of the belts and their internal content (level of botanical diversity, ratio of basic and associated communities, prevailing ecological-phytocoenotic series of communities, development of heterogeneous structures and dynamic categories).

This study is devoted to evaluation of the influence of climate on modern spatial structure of mountain ecosystems of the Altai-Sayan orobiome and vegetation cover as their basic component, as well as forecasting the transformation of vegetation under climate change. Using original field data (geobotanical relevés of communities) and bioclimatic indicators (global climate model CHELSA) for key areas covering full altitudinal-belt spectra of vegetation of the West Sayan, East Sayan, West Altai and Salair-Kuznetsk types, bioclimatic models of altitudinal zones and background typological divisions of orobiome vegetation have been created. Discriminant analysis has been used as a method for determining the probability of development of typological units of basic vegetation (vegetation formations, groups and classes of formations, types of vegetation) and the altitudinal belts based on their factor-indicative dependencies with key bioclimatic variables (average long-term annual temperature, average long-term annual precipitation, continentality index). The identified potential climatic conditions made it possible to construct a reference climatic framework model to characterize and analyze the key regional features of the modern structure of vegetation diversity of the Altai-Sayan orobiome (it is limited by the average annual temperature from –6 to +3°C, average annual precipitation from 500 to 1800 mm, continentality index from 33 to 38). Differences in climatopes of altitudinal-belt divisions of vegetation of forest-steppe, subtaiga, chern taiga, mountain taiga, subalpine and alpine-tundra complexes have been determined according to the altitudinal gradient, as well as between the altitudinal spectra of different types of zonation. Differences in the resistance of vegetation to climate change have been found in accordance with the altitudinal gradient. An increasing degree of transformation in the composition and structure of communities occurs from low-mountain belts to high-mountain ones. Within the belts, the communities of the edge parts of their climatopes at the contact of altitudinal-belt units are more susceptible to processes of vegetation transformation.

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About the authors

M. V. Bocharnikov

M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

Author for correspondence.
Email: maxim-msu-bg@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Leninskie gory, 1, Moscow, 119991

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Key areas for bioclimatic modeling of vegetation with points of geobotanical relevés of communities.

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3. Fig. 2. Bioclimatic models of vegetation in the West Sayan key area: a – typological subdivisions of vegetation – see Table 3; b – resistance of vegetation to the climate change.

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4. Fig. 3. Bioclimatic models of vegetation in the East Sayan key area: a – typological subdivisions of vegetation – see Table 3; b – resistance of vegetation to the climate change.

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5. Fig. 4. Bioclimatic models of vegetation in the West Altai key area: a – typological subdivisions of vegetation – see Table 3; b – resistance of vegetation to the climate change.

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6. Fig. 5. Bioclimatic models of vegetation in the Kuznetsk Alatau key area: a – typological subdivisions of vegetation – see Table 3; b – resistance of vegetation to the climate change.

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7. Absolute altitude (m)

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8. Average annual temperature (°C)

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9. Average annual precipitation (mm)

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10. Continentality index

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